I. International oil prices plummeted to a new low this year
1. The largest single-day decline
On May 5, WTI crude oil futures closed down 1.99% to $57.13/barrel, and Brent crude oil fell 1.73% to $60.23/barrel. After opening on May 7, WTI crude oil fell to $55.30/barrel and Brent crude oil hit $58.50/barrel, hitting a new low in 2025.
2. Supply and demand imbalance and policy shocks
The main driving factors include:
- OPEC+'s unexpected increase in production: OPEC+'s accelerated production increase strategy has led to increased concerns about oversupply in the market;
- US tariff policy: The escalation of Sino-US trade frictions has triggered expectations of a global economic downturn, suppressing crude oil demand.
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II. China-US tariff game impacts energy trade
1. China's countermeasures take effect
China imposes a 34% tariff on imported crude oil from the United States, which directly impacts US energy exports. Canada's crude oil exports to the United States fell 6.6% month-on-month in March, and the trade chain is accelerating to shift to the Asian market.
2. International institutions warn of economic risks
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned that tariff policies may drag down global economic growth and further weaken oil consumption demand.
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III. China market dynamics
1. Corporate capital flows diverge
-China Petroleum (601857) had a net outflow of 35.8171 million yuan in main funds, but the stock price rose 1.76%, showing the confidence of retail funds in energy blue-chip stocks;
-Zhongman Petroleum (603619) had a net outflow of 11.3479 million yuan in main funds, but benefited from a 32.95% year-on-year increase in net profit in the first quarter, and the stock price rose 2.09%.
2. Fluctuation of refined oil prices
Domestic gasoline wholesale prices continue to be under pressure, and Shandong local refinery gasoline has fallen by 200-300 yuan/ton; the price of centralized procurement in Northeast China has rebounded, reflecting regional supply and demand differences.
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IV. OPEC+ policy and market trust crisis
1. Production increase plan continues to exert pressure
OPEC+ announced that it will increase daily production by 410,000 barrels from May, far exceeding the original plan, and the potential daily surplus may reach 950,000 barrels in 2025.
2. Internal game is open
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates and other countries have intensified their differences in price targets and market share, and the market has doubts about the execution of the production cut agreement.
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V. Institutional forecasts and investment strategies
- Goldman Sachs lowered its oil price expectations: Brent crude oil is expected to fall to $62/barrel by the end of 2025, and WTI crude oil to $58/barrel;
- Technical support level test: Brent crude oil is facing pressure to break through the psychological barrier of $60/barrel.