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I. International oil prices continue to be under pressure
1. The change rate of crude oil prices in the three places has fallen
As of May 16, the change rate of crude oil prices in the three places was -4.23%, which was further down from the previous day. It is expected that the domestic refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on May 19, with a reduction of about 230 yuan/ton. This trend has continued for many days, reflecting the market's concerns about the imbalance between supply and demand.
2. International oil prices fluctuated and closed down
Data on May 14 (previous trading day) showed that WTI crude oil futures closed down 0.82% to US$63.15/barrel, and Brent crude oil futures closed down 0.81% to US$66.09/barrel. The market was affected by the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventories and the progress of the US-Iran nuclear agreement, and short-term bearish sentiment dominated.
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II. Corporate capital trends
1. China Petroleum net outflow
On May 16, China Petroleum (601857) had a net outflow of 97.3703 million yuan in main funds, and its stock price fell 1.57% to close at 8.15 yuan. In terms of financing, the net purchase on that day was 17.7582 million yuan, indicating that the market had different views on its short-term trend.
2. Tongyuan Petroleum was favored by main funds
On the same day, Tongyuan Petroleum (300164) had a net inflow of 4.5053 million yuan in main funds, accounting for 7.56% of the total transaction volume, which may benefit from the partial rebound of the oil and gas mining sector.
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III. Policy and market forecast
1. OPEC+ production increase expectations heat up
Macquarie expects OPEC+ to continue to increase oil production in July, with a daily increase of 400,000 barrels, further exacerbating oversupply pressure. The current daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries has reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the growth rate of demand.
2. Cooperation between the United States and Middle Eastern capital
The UAE announced that it will invest $1.4 trillion in the United States in the next 10 years. Part of the funds may flow into energy infrastructure and technology upgrades, which may affect the global energy supply chain in the long run.
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IV. Domestic market dynamics
- Finished oil prices are under pressure
Domestic gasoline wholesale prices continue to decline. On May 16, the price of No. 92 gasoline in many places remained in the range of 7.2-7.4 yuan/liter. As international oil prices fall, it is expected that retail prices will be further reduced after the price adjustment on May 19.