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I. International oil prices and market trends
1. Oil prices fell below key support levels
WTI crude oil futures closed at $59.8/barrel (-2.3%), and Brent crude oil closed at $63.4/barrel (-1.9%), both hitting new lows since 2021. Technically, Brent crude oil fell below the psychological barrier of $60/barrel, triggering programmatic trading sell-offs, and daily trading volume surged 40%.
2. Core negative factors
- Inventories continue to accumulate: U.S. EIA crude oil inventories increased by 4.2 million barrels, exceeding expectations for four consecutive weeks;
- Strong suppression of the U.S. dollar: The U.S. dollar index rose to 102.5, a new high since 2022;
- Demand expectations are lowered: The IEA lowered the global crude oil demand growth rate in 2025 from 1.03 million barrels/day to 880,000 barrels/day.
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II. Policy and geopolitical game
1. OPEC+ emergency meeting aborted
Saudi Arabia proposed to hold an emergency meeting but was opposed by Russia and the UAE, and the market questioned the unity of OPEC+. Saudi Arabia's energy minister hinted that "unilateral production cuts may be made", but did not announce specific plans.
2. US sanctions increased
The US Treasury Department added 8 Hong Kong companies to the Iranian oil trade blacklist and froze their assets in the United States. The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs said it would take "necessary countermeasures", and the Sino-US energy game became fierce.
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III. Corporate strategy and technological breakthroughs
1. China Petroleum Deepwater Gas Field Put into Production
The "Deep Sea No. 2" ultra-deepwater gas field officially supplies gas, with an annual production capacity of 5 billion cubic meters. It is equipped with the world's first floating CCUS device, which can store 1.2 million tons of carbon dioxide annually, and its technology is ahead of international peers.
2. Saudi Aramco plans hydrogen trade
Signed an agreement with Japan's Mitsubishi to export one million tons of blue hydrogen (based on natural gas + carbon capture) to Japan by 2030, and the first ship's trial transportation will start in 2026.
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IV. China Market Dynamics
1. High-pressure crackdown on refined oil smuggling
Guangdong Coast Guard seized 12 smuggled oil tankers, involving 23,000 tons of refined oil, with a case value of 160 million yuan. The price of smuggled oil is as low as 5.2 yuan/liter, impacting the formal market.
2. Commercialization of hydrogen heavy trucks is accelerating
The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Hydrogen Energy Corridor was put into operation, and the first batch of 500 hydrogen heavy trucks covered the Beijing-Xiongan Expressway. The price of hydrogen at the supporting hydrogen refueling station dropped to 20 yuan/kg (including subsidies), which is 25% lower than the cost of diesel.
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V. Industry Trends and Risk Warnings
- Acceleration of refining elimination: China plans to shut down 20 million tons of backward refining this year, Shandong local refining integration has entered the substantive stage, and 30% of small and medium-sized refineries are facing acquisitions.
- Green transformation of the aviation industry: Airbus announced that it will launch a fully hydrogen regional jet in 2035, and Boeing accelerated the development of SAF (sustainable aviation fuel). It is expected that the aviation industry's oil demand will shrink by 60% by 2050.