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I. International energy demand and market dynamics
1. The International Energy Agency lowers its demand growth forecast
The International Energy Agency (IEA) released a report saying that due to the economic downturn and record-high sales of electric vehicles, the global oil demand growth rate is expected to slow to 650,000 barrels per day in 2025, lower than the 990,000 barrels per day in the first quarter. However, the agency also raised the demand growth rate in 2026 to 760,000 barrels per day.
2. Performance of Western oil giants is under pressure
The net profits of the five major Western energy giants, including ExxonMobil and Shell, declined overall in 2024, mainly due to weak international oil prices, declining refining profit margins and competition from new refining capacity in Asia. Among them, ExxonMobil's full-year net profit fell 6% year-on-year to US$33.68 billion, and Shell's adjusted profit fell 16% to US$23.716 billion.
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II. International Energy Cooperation and Technological Breakthroughs
1. Chinese Enterprises Win the Bid for Oman LNG Project
China National Chemical Corporation (ChemChina) successfully won the bid for the civil engineering project of the first phase of the Oman MARSA LNG project. After completion, the project will become one of the world's lowest carbon-intensity LNG plants and promote the establishment of the first LNG refueling center in the Middle East.
2. New Progress in Domestic Equipment Technology
- Hangzhou Oxygen Group signed a contract for the first domestic CO deep cold separation unit using internal compression process technology to help the low-carbon transformation of petrochemical industry.
- The analytical gas screw compressor independently developed by the 711 Institute of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation won the bid for the 500,000 standard cubic meters per hour reforming hydrogen enrichment unit project.
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III. Policies and Industry Trends
- The impact of the US tariff policy continues
The new US sanctions on the Russian oil industry involve more than 180 tankers and core enterprises, resulting in a 25% drop in Russia's seaborne exports and accelerating the reconstruction of the global energy supply chain. China, Japan, South Korea and other countries are adjusting their import structure to increase the proportion of crude oil from the Middle East and Russia.
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IV. Clean Energy Technology Progress
- Hydrogen Energy Commercialization Process Accelerates
China and the EU promote the construction of hydrogen energy pipelines. It is expected that the global cost of green hydrogen will drop below $2/kg by 2030, weakening the demand for traditional oil in the long term.
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V. Other Hot Spots
1. Scientific and Technological Breakthroughs
- Chinese scientific research team discovered a new microbial species "Tiangong Nier bacteria" in the space station.
- The 140-ton reusable liquid oxygen-methane engine completed its first whole machine test, helping the development of aerospace technology.
2. Financial Markets
- International rating agency Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, triggering market concerns about US debt risks.