I. International oil price trends and market analysis
1. Supply and demand contradictions continue to exert pressure
Deng Zhenghong's soft power analysis model points out that the current oil market is facing the double negatives of "inventory pressure + currency depreciation". The accumulation of commercial crude oil inventories in the United States is superimposed on the hawkish policy of the Federal Reserve. The technical support level is facing the test of the psychological barrier of $60 per barrel. In the long run, breakthroughs in clean energy technologies such as hydrogen energy will accelerate the weakening of crude oil demand, and it is expected that the central oil price may be suppressed to the range of $65-70 per barrel.
2. Geopolitical game exacerbates volatility
Saudi Arabia's fine-tuning of production capacity policy, Russia's energy financial innovation and the shift in energy policy during the US election cycle have become key variables. If it falls below the $60 mark, it may trigger a technical sell-off.
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II. China Market Dynamics
1. Oil sector fell sharply
On April 8, the A-share oil industry sector index fell 3%, with Donghua Energy and Heshun Petroleum leading the decline, with declines of 9.94% and 9% respectively. The sector's turnover was 2.745 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.16%, reflecting the depressed market sentiment.
2. China Petroleum Funding Trends
China Petroleum (601857) had a net outflow of 21.1001 million yuan in main funds on that day, and a financing balance of 2.262 billion yuan. Although the stock price rose 4.9%, hot money and institutional funds showed divergence, and retail funds had a net inflow of 148 million yuan.
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III. Important Corporate Dynamics
1. Personnel Changes at Yanchang Petroleum International
Yanchang Petroleum International (00346.HK) announced that Sun Jian resigned as non-executive director and Lu Yiwen took over. The stock price was HK$0.27 on that day, with a market value of HK$297 million, ranking 9th in the petrochemical industry.
2. Commodity prices are stable
On April 8, the benchmark price of petroleum coke was 2,387.50 yuan/ton, the same as at the beginning of the month, indicating that the supply and demand of the refining by-product market is relatively balanced.
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IV. Global market linkage impact
- Related sectors collectively fell
New energy vehicles, hydrogen energy, photovoltaic and other sectors fell simultaneously, and the scale of net capital outflow was significant. Among them, the main funds of the new energy vehicle sector had a net outflow of 26.064 billion yuan, and the hydrogen energy sector had a net outflow of 8.758 billion yuan, reflecting the pressure on traditional energy assets under the background of energy transformation.
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V. Short-term risk warning
- Policy and trade friction risks
The escalation of US sanctions against Russia, the dispute over biodiesel policy and the Sino-US tariff game continue to disturb the market, and we need to be vigilant about the chain reaction of geopolitical conflicts and supply chain disruptions.
- OPEC+ production increase implementation differences
The public contradictions between Saudi Arabia and the UAE and other countries on price targets and market share may exacerbate oil price fluctuations.