I. International oil prices and market fundamentals
1. OPEC+ policy differences exacerbate market volatility
- Kazakhstan's new energy minister said that he would prioritize national interests rather than the interests of the OPEC+ group. Several member countries expressed their hope to approve another accelerated production increase in June at the meeting on May 5, which led to increased market concerns about oversupply and a sharp drop in oil prices during the day.
- The Russian Ministry of Economy lowered its 2025 oil production forecast from 518.6 million tons to 516 million tons, but planned to increase pipeline natural gas exports from 80.6 billion cubic meters to 89.1 billion cubic meters, reflecting the adjustment of energy export structure.
2. US inventory and refining data
- As of April 18, US commercial crude oil inventories reached 443.1 million barrels (week-on-week +240,000 barrels), and strategic crude oil reserves increased to 397.48 million barrels (week-on-week +470,000 barrels). Refinery processing capacity rose to 15.89 million barrels per day (+330,000 barrels per week), and gasoline inventories fell by 4.48 million barrels to 229.54 million barrels.
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II. Geopolitical and policy risks
1. EU sanctions and energy trade restructuring
- The European Commission plans to release a roadmap within two weeks to gradually stop all Russian fossil fuel imports. At the same time, the White House discussed whether to lift sanctions on Russia's Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline in exchange for easing the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
2. Impact of US tariff policy
- Trump's tariff policy has led to increased global trade tensions, and the average price of goods on US e-commerce platforms has risen by nearly 30%. The increase in basic energy and logistics costs has been further transmitted to the consumer end.
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III. Regional market and cooperation dynamics
1. Saudi Arabia and India deepen cooperation
- India and Saudi Arabia are exploring joint projects in the fields of refining and petrochemicals, which may promote the diversification of Middle East crude oil exports.
2. Russian Energy Diplomacy
- Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak met with Iranian Oil Minister to discuss the OPEC+ agreement and coordinate positions, trying to balance production increases with price stability.
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IV. By-product market and price fluctuations
- Petroleum coke prices fell
Xinhua Shandong Port Petroleum Coke Spot Trading Price Index reported 1,832 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (0.76%) from the previous day, reflecting weak demand for refining by-products.
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V. Long-term trends and institutional forecasts
- The Central Bank of Azerbaijan lowered its oil price expectations
The average oil price forecast for 2025 was lowered from US$77/barrel to US$70/barrel, mainly based on supply and demand imbalances and pressure for clean energy substitution.