1. Oil prices stabilized and rebounded
Affected by the United States' attempt to curb Venezuelan crude oil trading, international oil prices rebounded from lows. According to data from the New York Mercantile Exchange, WTI crude oil futures opened at 465.4 yuan/barrel on May 9, reaching a high of 471.4 yuan/barrel during the session, and finally closed up 1.78% to 470.0 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical risks and supply-side disturbances support short-term prices.
2. The number of oil rigs in the United States has declined
The number of oil rigs in the United States fell to 474 in the week of May 9 (previous value: 479), reflecting a marginal slowdown in shale oil production activities, which may ease market concerns about oversupply.
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II. Policy and trade dynamics
1. The United States and the United Kingdom reached a trade agreement framework
Trump announced that he had reached a trade agreement with the United Kingdom, including reducing non-tariff barriers to US goods and expanding market access, which is expected to create new opportunities for US energy product exports. The agreement boosted market sentiment and eased demand concerns caused by previous tariff policies.
2. US sanctions on Venezuela
The United States is trying to further curb Venezuelan crude oil trading and limit its oil export capacity. This move may exacerbate the shortage of heavy crude oil supply and support oil prices in the short term.
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III. Corporate capital trends
1. China Petroleum's main capital net outflow
On May 9, China Petroleum's main capital net outflow was 4.8165 million yuan, and retail capital net inflow was 13.4524 million yuan. The company's net profit attributable to shareholders in the first quarter increased by 2.27% year-on-year to 46.807 billion yuan, showing a solid fundamentals but short-term capital divergence.
2. China Man Petroleum is favored by funds
On the same day, China Man Petroleum's main capital net inflow was 16.767 million yuan, accounting for 9.66% of the total transaction volume. Capital trends reflect the market's increased attention to oil mining companies.
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IV. Long-term industry challenges
- Tariff policies continue to exert pressure
The tariff game between China and the United States has escalated. China has imposed a 34% tariff on US crude oil (historical dialogue data). Coupled with the policy controversy over the US's plan to increase the biomass diesel blending quota to 5.5 billion to 5.75 billion gallons, the global energy trade chain is facing the risk of reconstruction.