I. International oil prices continue to fall
1. Oil prices continued to fall on May 5
According to data, when the New York Mercantile Exchange closed on May 5, WTI crude oil (delivery in June) fell to US$57.13/barrel, a drop of US$1.16; Brent crude oil (delivery in July) fell to US$60.23/barrel, a drop of US$1.06. Although the direct information did not mention the data for May 10-11, the continued impact of the tariff war and the imbalance between supply and demand may cause oil prices to continue to decline.
2. The impact of tariff policies deepens
The Sino-US tariff game is still fermenting. China's countermeasures of imposing a 34% tariff on US crude oil have further pressured the energy trade chain and suppressed market sentiment. In addition, concerns about a global economic recession caused by the US tariff policy continue to put pressure on the demand side.
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II. Market fundamentals and institutional forecasts
1. Supply-demand contradiction-dominant logic
The International Energy Agency (IEA), OPEC and other institutions predict that the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 (about 1.03 million barrels/day) will be much lower than the increase in production in non-OPEC countries (1.6 million barrels/day), and the potential daily surplus will reach 950,000 barrels, making it difficult to ease the contradiction between supply and demand.
2. Goldman Sachs and Zhuochuang Information are bearish
Goldman Sachs predicts that Brent crude oil may fall to $62/barrel by the end of 2025, while Zhuochuang Information warns that the central price of oil may fall to the range of $60-75/barrel, and the psychological barrier of $60/barrel is facing a test from a technical perspective.
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III. Policy and geopolitical dynamics
1. Controversy over US biofuel policy
The United States plans to increase the biomass diesel blending quota to 5.5 billion-5.75 billion gallons, and small refiners continue to oppose it. The implementation of the policy may indirectly affect crude oil consumption.
2. OPEC+ production increase and internal game
OPEC+ has increased its daily production by 410,000 barrels since May, far exceeding the original plan. Combined with the UAE's production increase plan, the pressure of oversupply has further intensified. The differences between Saudi Arabia and Russia on price targets and market share have become public, and the market's trust in the production cut agreement has declined.
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IV. China Market Dynamics
1. Accelerated transformation of refining and chemical companies
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have deployed hydrogen energy equipment through bulk transaction financing [[historical dialogue data]], and the Shandong International Petrochemical Equipment Exhibition focuses on green technology and intelligent upgrades, reflecting the urgency of the industry to cope with low-carbon transformation.
2. Refined oil prices are under pressure
The sharp drop in international oil prices in April led to a drop in domestic gasoline and diesel wholesale prices. The cumulative drop in Shandong local refinery gasoline reached 200-300 yuan/ton, and the market may continue to be weak in May [.
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V. Long-term industry trends
- Clean energy impact intensifies
The commercialization of hydrogen storage and transportation technology is accelerating, and the global green hydrogen cost may drop below $2/kg in 2030, which will weaken the dominant position of oil in the transportation energy field in the long term