I. International oil prices rebounded sharply
1. Single-day increase of more than 3%
On May 8, international oil prices rose significantly, with WTI crude oil futures closing up 3.17% at $59.91 per barrel and Brent crude oil futures closing up 2.81% at $62.84 per barrel. The main driving factor is the market's increased confidence in the restoration of the trade environment.
2. Geo-risk premium rebounds
The United States attempts to increase restrictions on Venezuelan crude oil transactions, coupled with potential supply risks caused by tensions in the Middle East, which has pushed oil prices to stabilize and rebound.
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II. The continued impact of US tariff policies
1. Reconstruction of the global trade chain
US Secretary of Commerce Lutnick said that the 10% basic tariff rate imposed on goods from many countries may exist for a long time, and the Federal Reserve is worried that this move will increase inflationary pressure and suppress crude oil demand.
2. China's countermeasures have been implemented
China has imposed a 34% tariff on imported crude oil from the United States, which has put further pressure on the energy trade chain. Domestic refined oil wholesale prices fell in response, and Shandong local gasoline prices fell by 200-300 yuan/ton.
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III. China market dynamics
1. Refined oil price adjustment expectations
Affected by international oil price fluctuations, the domestic refined oil price adjustment window on April 17 may open and fall. On May 12, the national wholesale price range of No. 0 diesel was 6.52-7.29 yuan/liter, and the retail price of gasoline fluctuated due to regional differences.
2. Futures market performance differentiation
- Asphalt: Post-holiday demand was weak, and the main contract of asphalt futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.32% to 3,453 yuan/ton;
- Fuel oil: The Singapore market fell first and then rose, and the main contract of fuel oil futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 1.24% to 2,949 yuan/ton;
- Liquefied gas: Affected by the news, the volatility was weak, and the main contract of liquefied gas futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange fell 0.75% to 4,367 yuan/ton.
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IV. Industry capital trends
- Net outflow of 87.12 million yuan in the oil sector
On May 12, the oil industry sector moved downward abnormally, with the main capital net outflow leading the way, reflecting the market's concerns about policy uncertainty. Alternative energy sectors such as hydrogen energy and biomass energy were simultaneously under pressure, and capital flows showed differentiation.
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V. Long-term supply and demand contradictions
- Clean energy shocks continue
The commercialization of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is accelerating, and the global green hydrogen cost may drop below US$2/kg in 2030, weakening oil demand in the long term. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the US tariff policy may aggravate the global economic downturn and further drag down crude oil consumption.
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Summary and suggestions
The current oil market is still facing the dual pressure of "policy game + weakening demand". In the short term, pay attention to the geopolitical risk premium and the progress of Sino-US tariff negotiations. Investors are advised to refer to the real-time data of the New York Mercantile Exchange or Bloomberg platform and pay attention to targets such as China Petroleum and Rongsheng Petrochemical.