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I. International oil prices and market trends
1. Crude oil futures prices fluctuated and rose
Affected by the positive signals released by the Sino-US economic and trade talks and the expected decline in the risk of US economic recession, international oil prices rebounded slightly on May 13. Data from the New York Mercantile Exchange showed that the rise in WTI crude oil futures prices to the specific market needs to refer to real-time data (such as opening and closing price fluctuations).
2. Adjustment of domestic refined oil prices
Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Group raised the ex-factory price of refined oil: 0# diesel price increased by 70 yuan/ton to 6550 yuan/ton, 92# and 95# gasoline increased by 30 yuan/ton to 7610 yuan/ton and 7750 yuan/ton respectively, reflecting short-term supply and demand adjustments and cost transmission effects.
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II. Policy and trade dynamics
1. Adjustment of China-US tariff policies
China and the US agreed to reduce the current tariff by 115%, with the US tariff rate on China reduced to 30% and China's tariff rate on the US reduced to 10%, with a validity period of 90 days. The previous tariff game caused oil prices to fall to a four-year low. This policy easing may ease the pressure on the energy trade chain.
2. Cost pressure on US shale oil companies
The current WTI oil price continues to be lower than the profit threshold of US shale oil companies of US$65 per barrel. Diamondback Energy warned that if oil prices remain low, US crude oil production may peak, further affecting the global supply pattern.
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III. Corporate trends and capital flows
1. China Petroleum Financing Dynamics
On May 13, China Petroleum (601857) received financing purchases of 37.3985 million yuan, financing repayments of 35.8361 million yuan, net financing purchases of 1.5623 million yuan, and financing balances of 2.328 billion yuan, indicating that the market still has confidence in energy blue-chip stocks.
2. Highlights of Shouhua Gas Performance Briefing
- Production target: strive to exceed 3.2 million cubic meters of natural gas daily production by the end of 2025, and annual production will exceed 900 million cubic meters (a year-on-year increase of 129%);
- Cost control: reduce the cost of deep coalbed methane development through technical optimization and infrastructure improvement;
- Sales strategy: expand high-priced downstream customers to improve profit elasticity.
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IV. Long-term challenges and transformation of the industry
- Clean energy impacts traditional demand
The commercialization of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is accelerating. It is expected that the global green hydrogen cost will drop to less than US$2/kg in 2030, which will weaken the share of oil in the transportation energy field in the long term.
- OPEC+ production increase and oversupply
OPEC+ has increased its daily production by 410,000 barrels since May. Combined with the increase in production in non-OPEC countries, the potential daily surplus in 2025 may reach 950,000 barrels. The contradiction between supply and demand continues to put pressure on oil prices.
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V. Domestic market dynamics
- Diesel wholesale price fluctuations
The cumulative decline in Shandong local refinery gasoline reached 200-300 yuan/ton, but Sinopec's gasoline and diesel procurement prices in Northeast China rose against the trend (gasoline +230 yuan/ton, diesel +100 yuan/ton), reflecting the regional supply and demand differentiation.