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I. International oil prices rebounded significantly
1. WTI and Brent oil prices both rose by more than 2.5%
Boosted by the progress of Sino-US trade talks and tariff cuts in some countries, international oil prices rebounded sharply on May 13. WTI crude oil futures closed up 2.78% to $63.67 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures closed up 2.57% to $66.63 per barrel, hitting a two-week high. Market expectations for an improved global trade environment offset the negative impact of OPEC+'s production increase.
2. US inventory and demand-side signals
The US Treasury Department released actions related to sanctions on Iran, coupled with changes in US commercial crude oil inventories, and the market's expectations for summer demand have been restored. However, the Fed's hawkish policy and dollar fluctuations still suppress oil prices.
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II. China-US tariff game dynamics
1. China and the US reach a temporary tariff reduction agreement
China and the US announced a temporary reduction in reciprocal tariffs, involving import tax rates on energy products (such as crude oil and natural gas). This move eased the pressure on the global energy trade chain and pushed oil prices to rebound in the short term.
2. Impact of China's countermeasures
China's policy of imposing a 34% tariff on US crude oil and liquefied natural gas continues to ferment, and the US oil industry (especially small and medium-sized producers) faces the dual dilemma of rising costs and loss of market share.
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III. OPEC+ production increase and market response
- Supply-side contradictions are prominent
OPEC+'s production increase plan since April (an average increase of 410,000 barrels per day) is still putting pressure on the market, but Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will sign a liquefied natural gas supply agreement with multiple countries, planning to provide about 6.2 million tons of liquefied natural gas, trying to balance the contradiction between oversupply of crude oil and clean energy transformation.
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IV. Corporate dynamics and capital flows
1. Chinese energy stocks are favored by funds
China National Petroleum Corporation and Sinopec received net inflows of major funds, reflecting the market's confidence in traditional energy blue-chip stocks. At the same time, concept sectors such as hydrogen energy and biomass energy rose abnormally, showing the long-term layout of funds for energy transformation.
2. Accelerated transformation of refining and chemical companies
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have deployed hydrogen energy equipment through bulk transactions, while US shale oil companies have fallen into operational difficulties due to tariff policies, and the industry has a significant trend of integration.
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V. Long-term trends and technological breakthroughs
- Clean energy impact intensifies
The commercialization process of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is accelerating. It is expected that the global green hydrogen cost will drop to less than US$2/kg in 2030, which will weaken the share of oil in the transportation energy field in the long term. The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned that the growth rate of oil demand in 2025 may be lower than the increase in supply.