I. International oil prices continue to be under pressure
1. The weekly decline in spot crude oil prices was significant
Brent crude oil spot prices fell by 8.07% in the week, reporting $66.55 per barrel on April 25, a new low since 2025. Diesel and gasoline spot prices fell simultaneously, with weekly declines of 3.58% and 1.87% respectively.
2. Supply and demand imbalance dominates market sentiment
The daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (the United States and Brazil) reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the daily demand growth rate of 1.03 million barrels predicted by the International Energy Agency. Combined with the OPEC+ production increase plan, the potential daily surplus in 2025 may reach 950,000 barrels.
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II. Domestic market and price adjustment
1. Fluctuation of wholesale price of refined oil
The cumulative decline of gasoline in Shandong local refineries reached 200-300 yuan/ton. On April 27, the prices of No. 92 and No. 95 gasoline at gas stations across the country were lowered, and the spot prices of diesel and gasoline were 6552.50 yuan/ton and 7824.67 yuan/ton respectively.
2. Changes in prices of Northeastern procurement
The second batch of Northeastern Sinopec gasoline and diesel procurement prices rebounded in April, with gasoline transaction prices of 7950 yuan/ton (+230 yuan/ton) and diesel 6760 yuan/ton (+100 yuan/ton), reflecting short-term adjustments in regional supply and demand.
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III. Geopolitical and policy risks
1. Iranian port explosion
An explosion occurred in the southern Iranian port of Abbas. The preliminary investigation pointed to the storage of dangerous goods. Although it did not directly affect the supply of crude oil, it aggravated market concerns about the safety of the Middle East logistics chain.
2. Aftermath of US tariff policy
Sino-US energy trade frictions continue, China imposes 34% tariffs on US coal and crude oil, six Chinese industry chambers of commerce jointly declare support for countermeasures, and the global energy trade chain is further under pressure [[Historical Dialogue Data]].
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IV. Industry chain dynamics and corporate impact
1. Performance differentiation of refining and chemical companies
The revenue of refining and chemical business of China National Petroleum Corporation, Sinopec and other companies account for 35.97% and 48.11% respectively, but due to the decline in oil prices, gross profit margins are facing compression pressure.
2. Abnormal price movement of downstream products
Butadiene spot rose 4.59% in the week, and MTBE East China market fell 7.83% in the week, reflecting the differentiation of price transmission in the upstream and downstream of the petrochemical industry chain.
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V. Industry trends and investment strategies
- Clean energy substitution is accelerating
The commercialization of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology continues to advance, which will suppress oil demand in the long term. It is recommended to pay attention to targets with both policy dividends and transformation flexibility (such as Rongsheng Petrochemical) [[Historical Dialogue Data]].
- Technical key support level
The price center of Brent crude oil may drop to the range of 65-70 US dollars per barrel. The market is closely watching whether the psychological barrier of 60 US dollars per barrel is broken [[Historical dialogue data]].