I. Market dynamics and oil price performance
1. China Petroleum's stock price decline and capital flow
On April 29, China Petroleum (601857) closed at 7.94 yuan, down 1.0%, and the main funds had a net outflow of 138 million yuan, accounting for 21.43% of the total transaction volume. Despite the net inflow of 77.38 million yuan in retail funds, the market's short-term confidence in energy blue-chip stocks is still insufficient.
2. ConocoPhillips' trading volume fluctuates
ConocoPhillips (COP) had a trading volume of US$444 million on the day, and its stock price fell 1.13% to US$91.88. It has risen by 2.36% in the past five trading days, but has fallen by 7.35% since the beginning of the year, reflecting the long-term pressure faced by international oil companies.
3. Risk of crude oil price center falling
Technical indicators show that the price center of Brent crude oil may fall to the range of 65-70 US dollars per barrel, and the market is concerned about the psychological support level of 60 US dollars per barrel. Barclays and other institutions have recently lowered their oil price forecasts, mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand and the intensification of policy games.
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II. Policy and international trade impact
1. China-US tariff game escalates
The United States plans to adjust its automobile tariff policy, cancel the superposition of imported automobile tariffs and retroactively apply them to ease supply chain pressure. China has imposed a 34% tariff on US coal, crude oil and liquefied natural gas, further pressuring the energy trade chain.
2. Canada's tough policy toward the United States
The Canadian Liberal Party won the federal election, and the new Prime Minister Carney advocated retaliatory tariffs against the United States. The energy trade relationship between Canada and the United States may enter a new stage of confrontation, which will indirectly affect the North American crude oil market.
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III. Corporate dynamics and technological transformation
- PetroChina's low-carbon layout
PetroChina's net profit in the first quarter increased by 2.27% year-on-year, and the proportion of new energy in its main business continued to increase. The company has balanced short-term profits and long-term transformation by investing in clean technologies such as hydrogen energy through financing.
- Capital operation of refining and chemical companies
Rongsheng Petrochemical and other companies have recently made frequent bulk transactions, and the market is paying attention to their accelerated transformation to new materials and intelligent equipment through capital operations.
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IV. Long-term industry trends
1. Impact of clean energy technology
The commercialization of hydrogen energy storage and transportation technology is accelerating, and it is expected that the global green hydrogen cost will drop to less than US$2/kg in 2030, which will weaken the share of oil in the transportation energy field in the long term.
2. The contradiction between supply and demand continues to expand
The daily supply increase of non-OPEC countries (such as the United States and Brazil) reached 1.6 million barrels, far exceeding the demand growth rate of 1.03 million barrels predicted by the International Energy Agency, and the potential daily surplus may reach 950,000 barrels in 2025.